Who Wins the AFC East in 2026? The Bystander Sports Pick…

Who Wins the AFC East in 2026? The Bystander Sports Pick…

The Buffalo Bills spent five consecutive seasons winning the division before the New England Patriots finally knocked them off in 2025. New England went 14-3 and reached Super Bowl LX, while Buffalo finished 12-5 and reached the divisional round.

Now, heading into the 2026 season, the Bills are favored by the oddsmakers to take the division back. And that makes some sense.

Buffalo still has Josh Allen. The Bills are coming off a 12-win season. They have a talented roster and a newly promoted head coach in Joe Brady who knows the offense extremely well.

But this Bystander is picking the Patriots.

Here’s Why the Patriots Win the AFC East:

Let's get the obvious out of the way. Josh Allen is the best quarterback in the AFC East. That doesn't automatically make Buffalo the best team in the division.

The Patriots have something they didn't have for much of the post-Tom Brady era: a young quarterback who already looks capable of becoming one of the league's stars. Drake Maye took a massive step forward in 2025, helping New England finish 14-3 and make a Super Bowl appearance. Now the Patriots are giving him even more help.

New England added wide receiver A.J. Brown to a receiving group that also includes Romeo Doubs, DeMario Douglas and other young options. Brown's arrival gives Maye the kind of legitimate No. 1 target that can change how defenses have to approach the Patriots.

Mike Vrabel's team established an identity built around toughness, physical football and playing complementary football. Now the challenge is avoiding a Super Bowl hangover while continuing to develop Maye.

The biggest reason to believe they can do it is that the offense could actually be better. A.J. Brown gives Maye a proven veteran receiver who can win one-on-one matchups and make difficult catches. Romeo Doubs gives the offense another big target, while the Patriots have continued to invest in their running game and offensive line.

There are still concerns. New England has depth questions along the offensive line and at edge rusher, and injuries could quickly test the roster. But every team has weaknesses. The question is whether New England's strengths outweigh them.

I believe they do.

Don’t Completely Count Buffalo Out

Picking the Patriots doesn't mean ignoring what Buffalo brings to the table. The Bills are probably the safest team in the division.

Josh Allen remains one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in football, and Buffalo returns much of the roster that won 12 games last season. The offense gains a proven weapon in DJ Moore alongside James Cook (a top running back) and solid tight ends. Defensive additions like Bradley Chubb and C.J. Gardner-Johnson help, and the new stadium brings energy.

But the Bills also made a major coaching change. Joe Brady takes over as head coach after serving as Buffalo's offensive coordinator, while Jim Leonhard takes over as the new defensive coordinator. That could be a very interesting combination.

Brady already knows Allen and the offense, meaning Buffalo isn't starting completely over offensively. The goal is to maximize Allen's strengths and give him even more control of the offense.That's a major advantage. But it's also a transition. Fact is, Sean McDermott is gone after years of running the Bills, and now Brady has to manage the entire team rather than simply running the offense. 

The Bills also have a difficult schedule, particularly early in the season. Personally, I think this is the main factor in my decision. Buffalo seems to have a harder schedule to me than the Patriots. 

Miami Is the Biggest Wild Card

Expecting them to win the AFC East right now would require a massive leap. The Miami Dolphins are difficult to predict because so much has changed. Miami is entering a rebuilding season after moving on from major offensive stars, including Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Malik Willis now enters the picture at quarterback, while De'Von Achane remains one of the most explosive offensive players in football.

Miami's receiving corps is largely unproven, and the offense is undergoing a significant overhaul. That makes Miami more of a potential spoiler than my division favorite. If the Dolphins can play good defense and find enough offense, they could absolutely take a game or two away from Buffalo or New England. But I don't see them winning enough games to take the division.

New York Jets: Eternally Rebuilding

Geno Smith remains the swing piece under new offensive coordinator Frank Reich, and while the front seven looks more dangerous on paper, New York is a year or two away. The Jets have made significant changes after a disastrous 2025 season, particularly on defense. 

New York finished last season with zero interceptions and had one of the league's worst scoring defenses. The organization responded by bringing in veterans such as Minkah Fitzpatrick and Demario Davis while adding significant young talent.

But there is a difference between being improved and being ready to win the AFC East. New York still has too many questions to put it ahead of perennial favorites Buffalo or New England.

The Jets could be much better. If anything, the Jets are a team I could potentionally see playing the role of spoiler. I don't think they're ready to win the division. However, I do see them making another bid for the top draft pick at the end of the season.

The Bottom Line 

The Patriots are my pick because they have the combination of quarterback development, coaching, roster talent and confidence coming off a 14-win season.

A new head coach, a new defensive system and a challenging schedule give me enough hesitation to put Buffalo second.